El Niño: Tensions between Natural Strengths and Anthropologenic Strengths

Located in the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Niño results from natural local interactive processes between the ocean and the atmosphere and influences, through “atmospheric bridges”, extra-tropical Pacific regions. Hence, El Niño is both a local and global climatic phenomenon; that makes its genesis and forecasting an epistemic, ethical and practical challenge. Though its sources of uncertainty are epistemic and methodological at first, the anthropogenic component, which alters the natural interactions between climatic factors, adds complexity and uncertainty to a natural system. Inherently tied to its human component, the future of climate sciences may depend on its ability to conceptually integrate uncertainty in its scope, to enhance its interdisciplinarity and to stimulate transversal scientific culture. This science should find its place–without losing its specificity–in the framework of sustainability ethics by bridging the gap between these disciplines and inviting citizens to take part in its scope.