Probability and Time

In this interview, Henri Atlan explains the ambiguity of time-related probabilities. Some uncertainties can be quantified, especially by means of probability calculus. And modeling allows for predictions regarding the future of systems based on passed observations. But modeling is not always feasible. Besides, under-determination of models by observations is a general feature of complex systems when the number of available observations is limited. This leads him to criticize the “precautionary principle”.